Huge increase forecast in European geothermal heating capacity and investment

Independent energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy has forecast a huge increase in the European geothermal heating market in the coming years, “as governments scramble to find an affordable alternative to expensive gas-fired heating”. Total installed capacity is projected to surpass 6.2 gigawatt thermal (GWt) in 2030, a 58% increase from the current total of 3.9 GWt, with a corresponding investment of an estimated $7.4 billion. What’s more, these figures exclude systems using heat pumps.

Rystad report that installed capacity in Germany has doubled from 200 megawatt thermal (MWt) in 2012 to 400 MWt today. By 2030, capacity is set to double again and approach 850 MWt, with a spend of more than $1.5 billion on geothermal heat projects expected by 2030. The only country aiming to install more capacity between 2022 and 2030 will be the Netherlands, which will have more than 1 GWt capacity by the end of the decade, spending $1.1 billion in the process.

The report states that the UK appears to be “somewhat late to the party”, with current installed geothermal heat capacity of only 20 MWt. However, the prediction is that this will top 100 MWt by 2030, with the UK government projected to spend an estimated $470 million on geothermal heating by the end of the decade.

Read more about Rystad’s analysis – including their assessment of current levelised geothermal heating costs (LCOH) across Europe – at Full steam ahead: Europe to spend $7.4 billion on geothermal heating, capacity to reach 6.2 GWt by 2030 (

Rystad energy graphic